Why Grand Theft Auto VI Will Never Follow Call of Duty on Game Pass

There’s a lot to unpack here, folks, because Take-Two Interactive, aka Rockstar Games’ piggy bank, recently dropped some very juicy info that reveals a ton of information about the inner workings of the GTA 6 marketing machine. More specifically, why is it coming out so late in this console generation, how is the GTA franchise doing, and will VI ever end up on Microsoft’s Game Pass subscription service? Tin foil hats are not required, but they are welcome.

Strauss Zelnick, president and CEO of Take-Two Interactive, who has been in the position for over 17 years, recently gave an interview to the renowned online publication GameIndustry.byz and reiterated that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be coming to Xbox Game Pass, at least not during the time it is available.

However, its predecessor, Grand Theft Auto V, has appeared on Xbox’s game subscription service more than once. Keeping GTA V there reportedly cost Microsoft between $12 million and $15 million a month, while Red Dead Redemption II only cost $5 million a month. Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 is coming to Game Pass day and date, so why not GTA 6?

Zelnick also discussed the recent appearance of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III on Game Pass, on July 24, 2024.I think offering a top-line title with a premium price tag in a subscription service, day and date, will drive consumers to that subscription service for at least a period of time,” said the CEO of Take-Two.

In other words, while it will create a significant spike in the subscriber adoption graph, it is still not enough to convince Take-Two to bring Grand Theft Auto VI there on day one. It makes no financial sense for them not to sell one of their future most profitable games in history at full price.”No, it will not influence our decisions,” Zelnick said before adding, “Because our decisions are rational.

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Photo: Take-Two Interactive Software

Another key point discussed was the rate of console generational migration. While the last GTA title was released in 2013 on PS3, the series has skipped the entire PS4 and Xbox One generation, including mid-gen refreshes like the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. Yes, Grand Theft Auto V has gotten visual and technical upgrades with re-releases, but that’s beside the point.

GTA VI will not be coming to previous-gen consoles, so migration rates would naturally be a concern. But Strauss Zelnick isn't worried, saying, “Within a couple of years of a new hardware launch, the usage of previous generation hardware usually drops significantly. But I think that will be the case here too, it's just a matter of time.

In other words, this rate of adoption is why GTA VI will be released in the fall of 2025, and why we will likely never see a new Grant Theft Auto or Red Dead title at the start of a console generation, but only 3-4 years after the new hardware has had time to infiltrate nearly 100 million homes, if not more.

Sony recently revealed that over 61.7 million PS5 units have been sold to date, with industry analysts speculating that Xbox Series X|S numbers will be around 30 million. That’s nearly 92 million current-gen consoles, and by the time GTA VI launches, at least 25 million more will have been sold.

That number might even be called modest, because when VI launches, there will be an influx of new console buyers picking up PS5s just to play them. Even hardcore PC enthusiasts will reluctantly join the fray, locked to 30fps or lower.

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Photo: Take-Two Interactive Software

Statista showed that as of June 2022, the Call of Duty franchise had earned over $30 billion. So, what did it take for CoD to come to Game Pass? Well, the first step was Microsoft paying Activision-Blizzard $68.7 billion. But to better understand what it really means for such a massive title to end up on the subscription service, we need to go back in time.

According to industry sources, since the early days of Call of Duty 2 (2005), if a title in the series released annually is not the best-selling game of the year in the United States, it is certainly in the top three; sometimes even taking two of the top three spots. There are exceptions, such as 2006, when Call of Duty 3 came in at #6, and 2008, with CoD: World at War also coming in at #6.

In 2009, Modern Warfare 2 topped the charts. In 2010, Black Ops was also the best-selling game in the United States. In 2011, it was Modern Warfare 3's turn to take the top spot. In 2012, Black Ops II was number one. In 2013, Call of Duty: Ghosts came in second behind Grand Theft Auto V.

In 2016, CoD: Infinite Warfare took first place, while Call of Duty: WWII won in 2017. Red Dead Redemption 2 dethroned it in 2018, but in 2019, the remake of Modern Warfare took first place. In 2020, the latter was in second place, defeated by its sibling, Black Ops Cold War.

Call of Duty: Vanguard was again first in 2021, the reimagining of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II won in 2022, and Hogwarts Legacy swept the board as the best-selling title in 2023, followed by Modern Warfare III in second place. Interestingly, the new MW III was rated low, almost in unison, with a Metacritic score of 56/100, but still came in second.

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Photo: Take-Two Interactive Software

Bear with me, because we haven’t gone back in time at all. Game Pass is $12 per month for PC in the US, with the Ultimate subscription level costing $20. As a major AAA title, Call of Duty is a minimum of $70 for this console generation.

CoD is the best-selling title in the US almost every year. According to Statista, around 26 million players were active in the franchise as of Q4 2024 across various gaming platforms. Of course, there are small exceptions where Rockstar Games titles bring it down a notch. So, there would be no reason for a cash cow of this magnitude to go on a relatively cheap subscription service like Xbox or PC Game Pass. Well, cheap compared to a regular AAA full price.

Since Microsoft paid $68.7 billion for Activision-Blizzard, they’ve had to start making up that record amount. So, recently, the previous $17 Ultimate tier was bumped to $20, while the PC subscription saw a $2 increase from $10 to $12. Both tiers still offer current Microsoft first-party titles like Black Ops 6, coming October 25.

It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility that they offered Modern Warfare III “for free” just to please the PR gods after the company took some media bashing for raising the price. At the same time, it also appeases subscribers and potential subscribers for the recent Game Pass price hike.

We had to get through all that headache to better understand all the hurdles Call of Duty had to jump through to get to Game Pass. It’s highly unlikely that even Microsoft itself would have released GTA VI on Game Pass, even if they had purchased Take-Two Interactive, Rockstar Games, and every single piece of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. They can grit their teeth, but only for a little while.

Let's not forget that Take-Two Interactive knows how to handle its IPs very well. To date, the GTA series has sold over 430 million units, with the fifth installment surpassing 200 million. Even the GTA VI trailer broke YouTube records when it was released.

Never say never” is a wise expression. So while VI most likely won't be coming to a subscription service near you in its first five years of life, who's to say that eight or ten years from now, younger generations won't be playing it on their smart devices via a streaming subscription for less than full price? It's also not out of the question that Rockstar Games itself is working on a GTA streaming service.

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