Tesla Shares Realistic FSD Roadmap for First Time, But Doesn't Include Self-Driving

Musk announced a level of robotaxis FSD which is 10 times safer than human driving for many years. The first time (that we know of) was in September 2014, two years before the now-removed Master Plan Part Two outlined Tesla’s autonomy plans. At the time, Musk said fully self-driving cars would be available in 5-6 years. He was even more optimistic a year later, announcing autonomous vehicles in about two years.

THE “two years” timeline has become a meme since then, as Musk has promised autonomous driving several times a year. In January and June 2016, Musk said that FSD would be ready in less than two years. By October of that year, he was confident that cross-country autonomous driving could happen “by the end of next year”, that is, the end of 2017.

From “two years” to “end of the year”

During the Q1 2017 earnings conference call, Musk said that all “the sensor hardware and computing power needed to achieve at least Level 4 autonomy has been installed in every Tesla produced since October 2016.” In May, he doubled down on that claim, adding that any Tesla with HW2 will be able to do so. Ironically, no HW2 Tesla could run FSD, and even HW2.5 vehicles needed an upgrade to HW3 to run the FSD software.

“By the end of next year” was the new term for when the Tesla FSD will become 100% or 200% safer than a human. In November 2018, Musk also said that Tesla electric vehicles would be able to “autonomously deliver to customers' homes within about a year.” “By the end of the year” It was used again in January and February 2019 for the launch of “fully autonomous driving.” In 2019, Musk repeatedly promised that the FSD would be ready by the end of the year.

As of April 2020, the software was still “it looks nice” for a robotaxi deployment that year, with a network fleet planned in 2021. As of December 2020, Musk was “extremely safe” on achieving full autonomy in 2021, a goal reiterated in January 2021. In March 2021, Musk announced moving to the pure vision for FSD with FSD V9. From now on, Musk has used the “will leave you speechless” expression to extol almost any FSD release. During Tesla’s Q4 2021 earnings conference call, Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla didn’t achieve a safer-than-human FSD in 2022.

The “jaw-dropping” era

Tesla fans tend to say that Elon Musk is a hopeless optimist, which is why he announces innovations long before they happen. Others, on the other hand, consider him a fraud who extols FSD’s capabilities to prop up Tesla stock. It’s unclear what drives Musk to make wild predictions that never materialize. Is it because he doesn’t care what his team can realistically achieve, or because it motivates his employees to do their best? No one knows, but it has gotten Tesla into trouble with regulators more than once.

There is also a distinct possibility that Musk actually believes that things are actually happening, even if they are not. We saw this very clearly earlier this year, when Musk was back “swept away” from the performance of the FSD V12. More than ever, Musk is convinced that full autonomy is just around the corner and Tesla must not waste time developing a robotaxi. That's why he has discarded most of the new Electric vehicle plans and announced that Tesla would now focus on robotaxis, artificial intelligence and robotics.

In April, Musk announced that Tesla would unveil its robotaxi on August 8, following a Reuters report that it was canceling new electric vehicle models. However, during the company’s second-quarter earnings call, the Tesla CEO remained silent about the robotaxi and dodged questions from investors when asked for details. In July, we learned that Musk had pushed the event back to October, a revelation that sent Tesla stock into a tailspin. It’s now confirmed to take place on October 10 at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California.

The first realistic roadmap of the FSD, no promise of autonomy

It’s unclear what Tesla will showcase at the event, but a new roadmap posted by the Tesla AI team on X (formerly Twitter) doesn’t include any mention of autonomy. In fact, it’s the most realistic prediction we’ve ever seen, helped by the fact that it doesn’t go very far into the future. The timeline stops in October, though it does say FSD could launch in China and Europe in Q1 2025 (if regulators allow it).

Based on the roadmap, there should be a lot of action on the FSD front this month, in addition to the ongoing efforts to launch FSD V12.5.2 on AI3 (HW3) models and push Actually Smart Summon to customer vehicles (both features are already in advanced testing). This month, the Cybertruck is expected to get Vision Autopark, a feature that will allow owners to let the Cybertruck do parking maneuvers for them. According to an earlier update shared by Tesla Autopilot head Ashok Elluswamy, the Cybertruck is set to get Autopark this weekend.

New features coming in September include eye-tracking with sunglasses and the transition to an end-to-end network on highways. Also, finally, the Cybertruck should have working FSD by the end of this month. October should be just as exciting, as Tesla Fully autonomous driving the software will learn to back out of parking spaces, park, and reverse, completing the autonomous driving circle. Additionally, the AI ​​team lists FSD V13 as an October launch without saying what it will bring beyond a 6x improvement in miles between interventions.

While still considered ambitious, the roadmap is missing a key ingredient, especially as Tesla prepares to unveil its robotaxi in October. The list doesn’t include any mention of robotaxis or autonomous driving. In a way, that’s refreshing, given all the broken promises Musk has made before. It’s also disconcerting, considering that FSD software is still a long way from unsupervised driving. Even with FSD V13, Tesla’s AI team is only promising incremental (six-fold) improvement, not a breakthrough.