Just yesterday, reliable Apple analyst at TF International Ming-Chi Kuo updated the situation with a tweet explaining that his recent supply chain investigation found that Apple's 5G modem chip shipments will grow rapidly, and eventually Apple's 5G modem chips will completely replace Qualcomm's Snapdragon 5G modem chips. This is a pretty risky move by Apple, as Qualcomm's Snapdragon 5G modem chips have a stellar reputation even within Apple. And if you were a Pixel 6 Pro user (like me), you know the pitfalls of using a phone with a problematic 5G modem.
TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that Apple's own 5G modems will begin shipping next year. | Image credit: @mingchikuo
Kuo says shipments of Apple's in-house 5G modem will reach 35-40 million units next year, 90-110 million units in 2026, and 160-180 million units in 2027. Kuo, being the equity analyst that he is, also noted that this will not bode well for Qualcomm's 5G chip shipments and licensing revenue. Kuo said back in July that two iPhone models will debut the in-house 5G modem chip in 2025. Those two models are the iPhone SE 4 (expected to arrive in the first quarter of next year) and the ultra-slim iPhone 17 Air, which could arrive in the third quarter of 2025.
Apple has proven that it can develop its own application processors for smartphones. And don't forget the powerful M-series chips that Apple has developed. If this gamble pays off, it could give Apple more control over the iPhone's connectivity and allow Apple to build exclusive features into the chip. Next year we'll see if the long road Apple has taken was worth it.