More than half of the new cars sold in the US are SUVs and trucks, so your next car will probably be one of those. But the big question is this: “Is it going to be an electric one?” As the Tesla Model Y is by far the best-selling EV in the nation, we’ll use its entry-level variant to answer this particular question in a break-even analysis against all the contenders.
Now it’s time to see if the break-even analysis will result in a similar conclusion for the most affordable Model Y, which faces a much larger number of competitors, ranging from battery-electric powertrains to plug-in hybrids, full-hybrids, and classic gasoline engines.
Of course, not all the SUVs on the list are direct competitors to Model Y Long Range RWD. But I give you the context, and it’s up to you to decide if a certain model can qualify as an alternative to Tesla’s proposal. I don’t really care if it’s a proper match, I just give you the data.
Basically, I gathered all the 2WD SUVs with MSRP basic prices up to around $50,000 (Model Y RWD starts from around $45,000). In a break-even calculation, comparing the “main character” to more expensive contenders is meaningless unless they are more efficient (which is hardly the case if you check the data in the table). But at least you have a broader context.
So, we’ll compare the Model Y to 16 electric SUVs, two plug-in hybrids, seven full-hybrids, and more than 50 gasoline-engine SUVs. This should be enough to give you an idea of the feasibility of Tesla’s small SUV. Of course, this is just a part of the story, but a very important one because it’s about money.
There are better electric SUVs out there, but there’s a caveat
As I explained in the previous part, the MPGe criteria doesn’t give you the real operational costs, but it’s an interesting tool for comparing Tesla’s contenders’ break-even results. Also, it can be considered a very worst-case scenario for a mixed usage scenario.
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The Korean cousins, the Hyundai Kona and KIA Niro, are not only cheaper but also smaller than Model Y. From an “apples-to-apples” perspective, they’re far from being real competitors to Model Y. So, you shouldn’t be appalled by those millions of miles needed for the Model Y to break even…
If you’re looking for the most affordable electric SUVs on the market, the Y is not among them. Period. I find it somehow funny that the EPA sees the Nissan Aryia as a Small Station Wagon instead of a Small SUV, but they have their rules.
What’s more important, though, is how much mileage is needed for Model Y to break even compared to two-thirds of the models in this list. To beat the entry-level variants of VW ID.4, Nissan Aryia, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai Ioniq 5, or Chevrolet Equinox EV (truly competitors to Model Y), Tesla needs hundreds of thousands of miles.
Surprisingly, because the KIA EV6 and Toyota BZ4X are as efficient as the Model Y but less expensive, the math shows us there’s no base for a break-even calculation as EV6 and BZ4X have a permanent edge. That is, the entry-level variants, with much less range and slower than Model Y.
Of course, I should note that, for a proper comparison, we should choose not the most affordable variants but those best matching Model Y basic trim. But this would require a very complex calculator, considering all the trims and options for a fair comparison. Maybe someday in the future…
The bottom line is, if you don’t mind lower ranges, a downgrade in performance (the Mustang Mach-E is the only exception here, with almost a second better than Model Y for 0-60 mph) and some shortages in interior space compared to Model Y, there are some interesting alternatives in the small electric SUV realm.
However, this is the scenario in which Elon Musk’s new friend will unfortunately become president once more, and, as he promised, EVs won’t benefit from subsidies anymore. But if he loses one more time (hopefully without insurrection…), the EV tax will keep prospective customers’ interest in Model Y RWD very high.
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Thanks to the subsidy, its basic MSRP price starts at only $37,500, just $3,000 more than the electric Chevy Equinox and $5,200 more than the entry-level VW ID.4—the only other models currently eligible for the EV tax. This time, there are much fewer real alternatives for the Model Y RWD.
Tesla’s SUV only needs between 12,000 and 30,000 miles to break even compared to the similar VW ID.4 Pro, but it needs more than half a million miles compared to Equinox. However, the break-even mileage drops significantly if we choose a higher trim level for the Equinox to mirror Model Y’s equipment better.
The bottom line is that the most affordable Model Y isn’t the best offer for break-even compared to other electric SUVs, but it remains one of the best for bucks in this segment. Frankly, while lately I have mixed feelings about Tesla because of its boss’s recent actions, if I were to choose between Model Y, ID.4, and Equinox, I’d objectively go for the Model Y.
Nevertheless, if you’re only looking for a decent electric SUV, the Hyundai Kona is the one to choose. While not in the same league as Model Y, the Korean model is a compelling offer—too bad it’s not eligible for the EV tax yet.
How about a plug-in hybrid or a full-hybrid 2WD SUV instead?
Things get interesting now because the real fight for Model Y and all the other electric SUVs is to prove their worth compared to ICE-based powertrain SUVs. While the Model Performance had no real plug-in hybrid contended, things are slightly different with the entry-level Model Y.
Just a little, as the only two plug-in hybrid contenders are the KIA Niro (smaller and ten grand cheaper than the Model Y, so it’s no use talking about breaking even) and the Ford Escape (basically, the only rival worth comparing to Model Y).
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Model Y needs many miles to break even. The best-case scenario (breaking even in around 120,000 miles) involves charging the Tesla only at home and using only hybrid mode for Escape. Thus, in a mixed-usage scenario, the Escape seems the better option.
Of course, it’s around 1.5 seconds slower from 0 to 60 mph, but it gives you 150 miles more range. Objectively and ignoring the emissions when the internal combustion engine is used, I can’t recommend Model Y RWD. The break-even mileage almost halves when adding options to Escape to match Model Y, but Tesla’s SUV still can’t claim the crown.
“How about the EV tax scenario?” Well, you should know that Ford’s plug-in hybrid also qualifies for half of Model Y’s value. This means the difference between the two is now less than $1,000, and it breaks even in almost all extreme scenarios in a fair number of miles. The only “no go” scenario is for Tesla to use fast chargers exclusively.
This time, I can only find range anxiety as the main reason not to recommend Model Y over the Escape plug-in hybrid. It’s a close call, and I’ll let you decide what you would choose based on this break-even analysis.
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When we try to do the same analysis against full-hybrid SUVs, things get pretty bad for the Tesla Model Y RWD. Without the EV tax, its higher price makes a big difference in favor of hybrid SUVs. Of course, that is if we ignore ICE emissions…
Using the theoretical MPGe calculation (which can be considered a somehow worst-case scenario of mixed usage), Model Y needs more than a hundred thousand miles to break even with its direct competitors: the Honda CR-V, Ford Escape, and KIA Sportage.
Frankly, if we also consider the almost double-range hybrid SUVs offer, it’s crystal clear why customers flock to hybrids instead of EVs.
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But what happens if the EV tax comes to the rescue? Well, this time, the MPGe theoretical scenario shows that only the KIA Sportage is a “hard catch” (as always, be aware that I used the entry-level trim in the table).
However, the truth is that range anxiety will make most prospective customers choose a hybrid option, even if Model Y, benefiting from the tax incentive, has a favorable break-even mileage.
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After all, the main advertised trait of an SUV is its all-rounder capability. Trading a 600-mile range for a 300-mile one is a very hard choice for many.
ICEVs: still close to “nails in the coffin” for EVs…
Just a few high-performance gasoline SUVs cost around $50,000, so it was easy for the Tesla Model Y to be the best option in its category. By contrast, I found more than 50 two-wheel-drive gasoline SUVs as alternatives to the Tesla Model Y RWD. This will surely give some headaches to electroheads and Tesla fanboys…
Of course, a number of them are not really rivals for the Model Y, as they are smaller SUVs, much cheaper, and much less powerful. You can call me crazy for including small SUVs like Chevrolet Trax, Toyota Corolla Cross, or VW Taos in the list, but I did it for you to have a broader context.
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Now, there are around 15 small gasoline SUVs that really match the Tesla Model Y in terms of space and dimensions, with lower starting MSRP prices. In the theoretical MPGe break-even scenario, Model Y needs at most 200,000 miles to break even and even less than 100,000 miles for premium brands.
But in real life, things are worse: if Model Y only uses fast chargers, it can’t break even compared to most of these competitors; in the best-case scenario, where Model Y only charges from home, the break-even mileage is more than 200,000 miles, which basically means there’s no point for such an analysis.
This is the case for entry-level trims, but things don’t change much if we add options to Tesla’s competitors to match Model Y RWD’s trim: the price difference remains pretty huge, around $10,000.
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Basically, the electric SUV has no chance of facing its gasoline competition. I can’t even argue that it’s one or two seconds faster because many of you will point out that its range is more than 100 miles lower. I don’t even dare mention gasoline SUVs’ direct tailpipe pollution as there’s no universal agreement yet on how much they cost in the big picture.
Still, at this point, I’ll let you once more reflect on this conundrum: Should we incentivize millions of electric vehicles every year or tax the hundreds of millions of ICE vehicles’ pollution yearly? That is if we can all agree that we can’t ignore the direct threat of tailpipe pollution to our health anymore, especially our children.
Back to the break-even analysis—how do things change if we consider the $7,500 EV tax? Well, not as much as the electrohead in me wanted. For those 15 direct competitors, the break-even mileage drops under 100,000 miles generally in the MPGe theoretical scenario.
But in those other two extreme real-life scenarios, Model Y still doesn’t become the expected best offer, except for the premium competitors from Cadillac, Lexus, Infiniti, or Mercedes-Benz, which are more expensive thanks to EV tax’s advantage for Tesla.
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However, in most cases, if we match competitors’ trim levels to Model Y RWD, the break-even mileage generally drops under 100,000 miles. Frankly, it’s pretty hard to use this as an argument for a prospective buyer to switch to an electric car, but hey, it’s worth a try for every specific case.
I’m sure some of you wonder why I included larger SUVs in the list—after all, there’s no basis for comparison between the Model Y and a Ford Explorer or a Toyota Highlander, right? Well, this is for those claiming that, for the Model Y’s price, you can get “more car for the money.”
Well, this is true if you completely ignore the break-even analysis, which shows that in almost all cases, Model Y takes just tens of thousands of bucks to break even. Moreover, there’s no case for a break-even comparison when factoring the EV tax. Numbers are crystal clear.
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So, is the Model Y RWD worth it?
The short answer is no—if you completely ignore the pollution factor. While the only true plug-in hybrid competitor isn’t a real menace for the entry-level Model Y, there are several full-hybrid and classic gasoline comparable SUVs that Tesla’s electric SUV simply can’t beat from an objective break-even point of view.
Besides, there are still too few better direct competitors for Model Y on the market for the ICE-based powertrain SUVs to worry about. In the absence of ICEs’ direct pollution impact awareness, I must reckon that the whole discussion on electromobility is nonsense. So, break-even numbers make it almost impossible for me to recommend the entry-level Model Y.
In the next episode of this material, we’ll try to figure out how things are with probably the most compelling Tesla on the market right now: the AWD Long Range variant. Stay tuned for the break-even numbers.