Most Tesla Model Y customers choose the AWD variant because, well, for most SUV buyers, such a vehicle would be inconceivable without the all-wheel drive system. The break-even analysis will give us a hint of whether an AWD electric SUV like the Model Y is a match for other powertrain SUVs.
Now it’s time to present the jury with the AWD variant, which I find is the most balanced option in Tesla’s lineup. Compared to the two-wheel drive variant, this one costs $3,000 more, but it’s more powerful and 1.5 seconds quicker. Also, its battery has 30% more capacity, while the range is only around ten miles shorter.
Easy win against comparable all-wheel drive electric SUVs
There are ten comparable electric AWD SUVs currently on the US market, sporting similar capacities and performance, but half are more costly. So, from the beginning, there’s no point in a break-even calculation for these, which means the list narrows a lot.
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Besides, there is a question of how much compromise you are willing to make. For instance, the Model Y needs many hundreds of miles to break even compared to the most affordable Ford Mustang Mach-E AWD.
But, while the 0-60 mph time is almost the same, Ford’s range is around 25% shorter, and the fast-charging power is half the Model Y. A better contender is the Mustang Mach-E Extended Range, sporting a bigger battery and a similar range to Model Y, but with a quicker sprint to 60 mph. However, the Model Y only needs between 45,000 and some 110,000 miles to break even.
The siblings Subaru Solterra and Toyota BZ4X, along with Nissan Aryia, take too many miles for the Model Y to break even. Still, the Japanese contenders are around 2 seconds slower, and their ranges are quite poor compared to Model Y. The cargo space is also a problem, but at least Subaru and Toyota have better ground clearance.
In my humble opinion, the Tesla Model Y AWD is a very appealing offer compared to its current direct contenders. However, things change when factoring in the EV tax, which lowers its price to only $40,500. This simply means there’s no case for a break-even scenario as all the other electric comparable SUVs are pricier.
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Well, not all of them—there’s one exception: the Chevrolet Equinox, also benefiting from the EV tax, is around $1,500 less costly. So, the Model Y needs at most 130,000 miles to break even with a similar car in terms of range and interior space, but one second slower and with less equipment.
Frankly, when I write this, the Model Y AWD is clearly the best choice for a 300-mile electric all-wheel drive SUV in the $40,000 area. Even if Elon’s recent Trumpism stance disappointed a lot of electroheads, including myself, I would definitely choose this Model Y if I were chasing an electric AWD SUV.
But, while things seem pretty easy with all-electric SUVs, it’s time to see if the Model Y AWD can match the ICE-based powertrain competition. Mind you, it’s a fierce competition.
The break-even favors Model Y AWD, but watch out for the elephant in the room
In the case of Model Y Performance, there were no comparable plug-in hybrid SUVs, while the entry-level Model Y RWD only had to deal with one real such contender. Surprisingly, I found seven plug-in hybrid AWD SUVs worth being called Model Y AWD opponents. But are they really?
Well, it seems that Model Y can’t match the Korean plug-in hybrid cousins Hyundai Tucson and KIA Sportage. In every extreme scenario, be it the best or worst-case scenario for Model Y, Tesla’s SUV needs too many hundreds of miles to break even.
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The theoretical MPGe scenario, which can be seen almost as a mixed usage scenario for the plug-in hybrid models, is a clear message for Tesla Model Y. Of course, I have to point out that the Koreans are much slower, but on the other hand, they have plenty of space, better ground clearance and the total range is more than 100 miles better.
It’s almost the same situation with the Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-in Hybrid or Toyota RAV4 Prime (this one’s range is simply double that of Model Y!). Frankly, the Koreans and Japanese seem closer to what a regular SUV customer wants from this kind of car. If I completely ignore ICE’s direct pollution, I can’t honestly choose the Model Y.
The Dodge Hornet and Alfa Romeo Tonale siblings also make a compelling case thanks to their better dynamics. In fact, I think they’re more appropriate to be called Model Y’s competitors, even if there’s still a one-second difference for the 0-60 mph sprint.
From a beak-even perspective, the bottom line is that these plug-in hybrid SUVs are better choices than Tesla’s electric SUV. Unless… Yes, you guessed it, the EV tax greatly changes the picture. Still, Model Y can’t proclaim an absolute win.
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A break-even analysis no longer makes sense for half of the plug-in hybrids in this list. However, in the extreme scenario where the Model Y only fast-charges and the plug-in hybrids are only used in hybrid mode, the Hornet and the RAV4 break even in less than 100,000 miles compared to the Model Y. This is pretty unlikely in real life, but I had to point it out.
In a mixed usage scenario, the Tesla Model Y is expected to break even in around 100,000 miles compared to the Korean plug-in hybrid cousins Tucson and Sportage, or even less if we match the equipment (which means Tucson and Sportage prices will be higher).
Now, while the break-even numbers give Model Y AWD a clear edge, we can’t ignore the elephant in the room: its lower range, compared to a plug-in hybrid SUV (be it a slower one), can blow up any objective numbers. Besides, many petrolheads are convinced that a plug-in hybrid slashes much of the direct pollution level, so Model Y’s win is actually a double-edged sword.
Wanna know why hybrids sell so well?
Compared to the Model Y Performance and the entry-level RWD variant, the AWD variant has the most full-hybrid competitors. While not all of them are direct competitors, they are all interesting alternatives to the electric SUV, especially because of the almost double range.
As expected, the much smaller price (for instance, the similarly sized Sportage Hybrid is more than $15,000 cheaper!) makes it very hard for the Tesla Model Y to break even convincingly. In the only fast-charging scenario, it has no chance, while in mixed usage, it will need at least 200,000 miles to break even.
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I could try to emphasize that all the full-hybrid SUVs on the list are really slow compared to the Model Y AWD’s under-5-second sprint, but do you remember what the elephant in the room is? I doubt I could fool any of you as long as these full-hybrid SUVs offer the advantage of a long range.
While I could try sensitizing you by discussing ICE’s direct pollution, I think the EV tax is a better incentive. The difference in price drops significantly, but it doesn’t make it too easy for the Model Y to break even. Once again, if Model Y only fast-charges, it’s a clear loss scenario for the electric SUV.
If it only uses the cheapest AC home charging, the Sorento, the Highlander, and the Lexus NX are no match, while the Santa Fe will take a few tens of thousands of miles to bow. However, these are not direct competitors to Model Y, so the numbers are not that relevant.
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The problem for Model Y is that it still needs at least 100,000 miles to break even with its real full-hybrid competition. The only consolation is that if we match the equipment, the break-even mileage drops slightly, but not enough to consider the Model Y AWD a real deal objectively.
Of course, the electrohead in me is disappointed by this conclusion. Still, at this point – if we completely ignore full-hybrids’ direct pollution, mind you – Tesla’s AWD small SUV is not a convincing offer from a break-even point of view. So, yes, this is a strong argument for people to flock to full-hybrid SUVs.
Classic ICE SUVs still reign: they’re more affordable and have more range. Period
I consider around one hundred gasoline AWD SUVs to be in direct competition with or pretty close rivals to the Tesla Model Y. Ninety of them cost less than the electric vehicle. Just as with the entry-level RWD Model Y, I included many models that are not in the same league—namely, smaller and much cheaper SUVs than Tesla.
This is to help you get the whole picture of the public’s huge appetite for the so-called small utility vehicles. Frankly, I was surprised to find so many AWD SUVs priced under $50,000, but you know what they say: more competition is better for the consumers, right?
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Unsurprisingly, the Model Y AWD will never break even from those under-$30,000 very small SUVs. But, hey, if you don’t mind much less space, awful performance, and a slightly better range than Model Y – and, of course, if you couldn’t care less about pollution and emissions – there are plenty of gasoline all-wheel drive little SUVs right now in the market.
It would take that fancy Tesla at least 250,000-300,000 miles to break even, so it’s useless to convince you that an electric AWD SUV makes sense. This is almost the same if we factor in the EV tax – the Model Y needs at least 150,000 miles to break even. And millions of miles if it is exclusively fast charging.
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Now, if we focus on Model Y’s direct competition—namely, small SUVs with similar dimensions and interior space—things are almost the same: the electric SUV needs an awful lot of miles to break even. In real life, a break-even analysis is futile when comparing it to gasoline-comparable SUVs.
Of course, they are much slower than the electric SUV (8 or 9 seconds for 0-60 mph, compared to under 5 seconds for Model Y AWD), and only a very few can claim a value closer to 6 seconds. In terms of performance, the two electric motors are superior in every way to a classic AWD system connected to a much less efficient internal combustion engine.
But I doubt the 425 electric poneys can make a compelling case in favor of the Model Y AWD. After all, if you really want a fast SUV, the Model Y Performance is just $3,500 more expensive – or less than 10% pricier. In the almost $50,000 realm, this is a small difference worth paying for much more power and dynamics.
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After all, the SUV paradigm is not about sprinting and speeding but mainly about interior space, comfort, ground clearance, and more safety, thanks to the all-wheel drive system. Basically, an SUV is perceived as an all-rounder fulfilling the desire to roam freely wherever you want, right?
That’s why I included many SUVs, which are less expensive than the Model Y but more spacious and capable of facing those long journeys that carmakers’ marketing departments make you dream of with all those nice and interesting ads. It’s too bad that none mention ICE’s direct pollution and emissions, but don’t let me spoil the greater picture.
The fact is that SUVs sporting basic MSRP prices of less than $40,000 don’t make a compelling case for a break-even analysis – the Model Y AWD simply takes more than 100,000 miles to break even. There are very few cases of under 100,000 miles, and we’re talking about the best-case scenario here.
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The EV tax helps a little, reducing the number of SUVs for which the Model Y AWD needs many miles to break even. Still, its direct competitors remain practically untouchable, as the Tesla SUV needs at least 100,000 miles to break even.
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Thanks to a less than 50,000-mile break-even in the best-case scenario, where Tesla charges only at home, it becomes an interesting alternative to AWD SUVs costing more than $35-36,000. However, using exclusively fast charging makes it a loser for half of the SUVs on this list.
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So, in the end, what’s the answer to the headline’s question?
Just a minute, please. We should not ignore the fact that the Tesla Model Y is not what you can call an affordable car. Indeed, in many ways, all three variants have more pros than cons, but comparing them to ICE-based powertrain SUVs and minimizing or even ignoring the tailpipe’s direct pollution consequences makes for a flawed comparison.
That being said, strictly from the break-even point of view, the Model Y’s top-of-the-line variant seems to be the only one really worth the money. While its sportiness is debatable for hardcore racing fans, the break-even values leave no doubt: it’s the best, very quick small SUV under the $45,000 bar, thanks to the EV tax.
Unfortunately, almost all those interested in similar small SUVs favor the range, the all-wheel drive, and the ground clearance over the thrilling performance. That’s why the other two variants of Model Y are much more important for our case.
The entry-level rear-wheel variant is far from a cheap car, so it’s no wonder the break-even analysis revealed some serious contenders with all types of powertrains. The Chevrolet Equinox EV and the VW ID.4 emerge as more interestingly priced electric SUVs.
Photo: KIA
In the ICE-based team, the Ford Escape Plug-in Hybrid is marginally better only if you hate range anxiety, while the KIA Sportage Hybrid is a clear winner, thanks to a more than 300,000-mile break-even. Still, if you’re interested in an electrified powertrain, maybe you’ll be more prone to consider Model Y.
However, classic gasoline 2WD SUVs similar in size to Model Y RWD will hardly change your mind. Their under-$30,000 basic MSRP prices are the main culprits for the comfortable difference in price to Model Y’s incentivized price. This electric SUV’s break-even mileage compared to any of its competitors is simply not appealing.
The all-wheel variant of Model Y has the hardest time because the less than $50,000 AWD SUV segment is the most crowded. While the electric Chevy Equinox is not a fierce competitor in the EV arena, and the few plug-in hybrid real contenders must give up sooner rather than later, it’s not the same with full-hybrid and classic gasoline SUVs.
Basically, the Model Y AWD takes too much to break even compared to its full-hybrid direct competitors. I must admit I can’t blame those headlines emphasizing customers’ appetite for this kind of powertrain. It’s really annoying that the EV tax doesn’t help.
Then, there’s an almost $10,000 price difference between the electric SUV and all classic gasoline-comparable SUVs, which translates to high break-even mileage for the Tesla Model Y AWD. Gasoline all-wheel drive SUVs are too damn affordable nowadays, and neither gas prices nor pollution levels can’t convince customers to pay many thousands more for an electric Tesla SUV.
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So, in the end, while the answer to the headline’s title is not a striking “Hell no!“, it’s not a “Definitely YES!” either. Unfortunately, popular wisdom already considers the Tesla Model the standard for a regular electric SUV, so many of you will probably be more inclined to choose the negative answer.
The electrohead in me can’t blame you: I gave you the break-even numbers, which mostly tell a grim story. Of course, they also omit pollution-related facts, but in a post-truth world, who has the time to dig deeper and find the nuanced story, not stick to the “black or white” one?
Oh, my! I just realized that all this break-even analysis is misleading: The headline’s question should have been, “Does it make sense to buy a Tesla small SUV today?” At least, I hope to have sparked some curiosity in you to go deeper than the price comparison between an electric vehicle and a plug-in hybrid, full-hybrid, or gasoline one.